Estimation the reinvasion of New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Central America: The role of animal movement in disease dispersal and control measures

The New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) has reemerged in Central America, posing risks to livestock and public health. Recent outbreaks highlight its northward spread, raising concerns about its potential reintroduction into Mexico. This study uses linear regression models to examine the role of animal movement in the parasite's spread, with a particular focus on human-mediated factors. Our analysis determined a spread rate of 1.2-1.9 km/day for screwworm outbreaks. Furthermore, consecutive outbreak events occurring more than 50 km apart suggest a strong association with animal movements rather than natural dispersal mechanisms. Based on these findings, we identified potential routes for its reintroduction into Mexico. To mitigate further outbreaks, enhanced control measures, active surveillance, and regional cooperation are urgently required.