Technical–Economic Assessment and FP2O Technical–Economic Resilience Analysis of the Gas Oil Hydrocracking Process at Large Scale

The increasing requirement for distillates, accompanied by higher quantities of heavy crude oil in world production, has positioned gas oil hydrocracking as one of the most significant processes in refineries. In the petrochemical industry, hydrocracking is an essential process that converts heavy hydrocarbons into lighter and more valuable products such as LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), diesel, kerosene, light naphtha, and heavy naphtha. This method uses hydrogen and a catalyst to break down the gas oil feedstock through hydrogenation and hydrocracking reactions. However, the gas oil hydrocracking process faces significant technical, economic, and financial obstacles that must be overcome to reveal its full potential. In this study, a computer-assisted technical–economic evaluation and an evaluation of the technical–economic resilience of the gas oil hydrocracking process at an industrial scale was carried out. Twelve technical–economic and three financial indicators were evaluated to identify this type of process’s current commercial status and to analyze possible economic performance parameter optimizations. The economic indicators listed include gross profit (GP), profitability after taxes (PAT), economic potential (EP), cumulative cash flow (CCF), payback period (PBP), depreciable payback period (DPBP), return on investment (ROI), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), annual cost/revenues (ACR), break-even point (BEP), and on-stream efficiency at the BEP. On the other hand, the financial indicators proposed by the methodology are earnings before taxes (EBT), earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). The technical–economic resilience of the process was also evaluated, considering the costs of raw materials, the market prices of the products, and processing capacity. The gas oil hydrocracking plant described, with a useful life of 20 years and a processing capacity of 1,937,247.91 tonnes per year, achieved a gross profit (GP) of USD 58.97 million and a return after tax (PAT) of USD 39.77 million for the first year, operating at maximum capacity. The results indicated that the process is attractive under a commercial approach, presenting a net present value (NPV) of USD 68.87 million at the end of the last year of operation and a cumulative cash flow (CCF) of less than one year−1 (0.34 years−1) for the first year at full processing capacity, which shows that in this process, variable costs have more weight on the economic indicators than fixed costs.