Complex dynamics in peace negotiations: insiders' views on the Colombian experience

Abstract The study of peace negotiations has traditionally emphasized the conditions leading to peace talks and the effect of external variables on negotiation outcomes. This article draws from the recent experience of Colombia, where peace negotiations took place between the government and the two main guerrilla groups, to investigate the internal dynamics of peace negotiations and the outcomes they produce. In doing so, it connects the fields of conflict resolution and the study of complex systems. The article investigates the elements that help us to understand the different dynamics of the parallel peace talks conducted by the Colombian government with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) in the period between 2010 and 2018, and to draw lessons from Colombia's experience. The comparative qualitative research underpinning the article is based on 23 interviews conducted in 2022 with participants in the peace negotiations, representatives of the international community and experts closely involved in the negotiation processes. The study's main finding is the recognition of negotiation spaces as having the power to transform the relationship between the parties. This contributes to the study of other conflict scenarios, where much emphasis is placed on military variables, as opposed to the potential of negotiation spaces.