Risk analysis of climate change effects on chemical processes

Abstract In this study, risk analysis of the effects of climate change on process accidents was aimed and a methodology was proposed in this context. Firstly, process accidents between 2008 and 2023 were analyzed through databases. Then, the province and organization where the risk analysis studies will be performed were selected. In the last stage, risk analysis was carried out using damage analysis, event tree analysis, and consequence analysis techniques. A case study of the proposed methodology was also performed in Izmir, considering the flood disaster map of Türkiye, industrial organizations' locations within the scope of the legislation, and fragile equipment. The atmospheric gasoline tank in the sample organization was found to be the riskiest against flooding with its critical fill rate (CFL: 27%), fragility (ψ: 36%), and frequency of loss of containment ( f LOC : 7.10 × 10 −4 /year) from the damage analysis. With event tree analysis, toxic release (7.09 × 10 −7 /year), pool fire (4.03 × 10 −7 /year), flash fire (3.44 × 10 −5 /year), and vapor cloud explosion (2.11 × 10 −5 /year) accident probabilities were determined. The consequence analysis showed lethal effects at a distance of 302 m. The sample organization met the regulatory threshold value (10 −4 /year), and no additional measures were required.