Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change, Population Growth, and Price Dynamics for Forecasting Pulses Production in India

Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching implications for ecosystems, economies, and human societies. Pulse cultivation, a crucial component of India's agricultural economy and food security, is particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. This study attempts to explore the complex dynamics shaping pulse cultivation in India, emphasizing utilizing predictive analytics to forecast future trends. It examines the impact of climate change on pulse production, including rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Additionally, it considers the effects of population growth on pulse demand and consumption patterns, as well as the influence of market prices and consumer affordability on pulse production. Various predictive models, such as Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, and Random Forest models, were applied to forecast pulse production under different climate change scenarios, population growth rates, and price dynamics. The results provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each model, with models like Linear Regression, SVM, and Decision Trees evaluated for their performance.

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Published
2024-11-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1109/delcon64804.2024.10867059
Primary Topic
Agricultural risk and resilience
Type
article
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article

Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change, Population Growth, and Price Dynamics for Forecasting Pulses Production in India

Arpit Khandelwal, Mamatha Alugubelly, Sanchit Aggarwal, Pranjali Upadhyay et al.
Agricultural risk and resilience
article

Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change, Population Growth, and Price Dynamics for Forecasting Pulses Production in India

Arpit Khandelwal, Mamatha Alugubelly, Sanchit Aggarwal, Pranjali Upadhyay, Chennaiah Madduri
article en

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching implications for ecosystems, economies, and human societies. Pulse cultivation, a crucial component of India's agricultural economy and food security, is particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. This study attempts to explore the complex dynamics shaping pulse cultivation in India, emphasizing utilizing predictive analytics to forecast future trends. It examines the impact of climate change on pulse production, including rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Additionally, it considers the effects of population growth on pulse demand and consumption patterns, as well as the influence of market prices and consumer affordability on pulse production. Various predictive models, such as Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, and Random Forest models, were applied to forecast pulse production under different climate change scenarios, population growth rates, and price dynamics. The results provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each model, with models like Linear Regression, SVM, and Decision Trees evaluated for their performance.

Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur (IN), University of Kota (IN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 63%
Agricultural risk and resilience
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