Climate Change and Seasonal Trends in Water-Energy Synergy of Hydropower Plants in the Himalayan Region

In the Himalayan region, the seasonal patterns of the climate, especially the extent of rainfall during the monsoon and dry periods, significantly influence electricity supply and security, and thereby commerce, and quality of life. By analyzing historical precipitation and power generation data of some selected power plants in Nepal, this study utilizes polynomial regression models to characterize the intricate relationships between weather patterns and hydropower outputs. The Mann-Kendall test indicates a significant increase in precipitation over the years (p-value of 0.00006), which has not correspondingly increased hydropower generation, highlighting operational and infrastructural limitations. ANOVA test then highlights significant seasonal impacts on energy generation, demonstrating climate’s influence on energy production. Correlation analysis further confirms a strong positive relationship (coefficient of 0.90) between rainfall and generation, emphasizing the potential to enhance power output through improved resource management. Polynomial regression models, optimized to a degree of 3 to avoid overfitting, characterize the intricate relationships between weather patterns and hydropower outputs. By leveraging detailed, data-driven insights into how environmental factors influence power generation, stakeholders can optimize hydropower operations, promoting sustainable energy in the Himalayan region.