Investigation of a user-centred heating network expansion path compared to a decentralised supply in the context of the municipal energy transition

In order to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 in accordance with the EU Commission’s climate targets, it is essential to switch to a sustainable energy supply in the building sector. One strategy for this is the use of heating networks that can ensure an efficient and sustainable heat supply. Considering limited resources and urban planning restrictions, it is necessary to evaluate this added value compared to a decentralised supply. To this end, a modeling process was developed that enables staggered expansion steps, taking expansion restrictions into account. In a first step, the decision-making behavior of building owners is analysed and then integrated into the planning of the expansion path of heating networks. The results of the study show that heating networks operated with renewable energy sources can achieve a positive net present value in the case area under consideration. It is predicted that by 2045, over 50% of the heat demand can be covered by the heating network, achieving a connection rate of 71%. Buildings that are not connected to the heating network are mainly heated with air-source heat pumps.