Analytical models to quantify the vulnerability of overhead line towers to scouring due to flash floods

Hydrogeological phenomena may represent a serious threat for the power system. Transmission System Operators (TSOs) in countries exposed to hydrogeological phenomena could benefit from methodologies and models to quantify the risk of load disruptions due to this kind of threats, in order to assess and enhance the resilience of their systems. In this context, the paper proposes a physics-inspired, probabilistic analytical model to quantify the vulnerability of overhead line tower footings to mechanical instability induced by a flood-related mechanism i.e. scouring (removal of terrain from the top of tower footing due to flash floods). Simulations on a simple case study show that the model represents a good tradeoff between accuracy and scalability, and its outcome, i.e. the conditional failure probability of footing instability, is sensitive to relevant features such as soil characteristics, intensity of the flood-related phenomena, foundation design criteria.