Impacts of probabilistically sized reserves on the operation of the Senegalese electrical grid

This paper aims at providing insights into the evolution of the operation costs of Senegal’s electrical grid and the fulfillment of system reserve needs while frequency control reserves are sized probabilistically. Control Reserves are used by Transmission System Operators (TSO) to cope for disturbances and limit frequency deviation from nominal set-point as small as possible. Historically they have been sized in a deterministic manner. However, with the advent of more intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (RES), there is a need of paradigm shift towards a probabilistic sizing methodology which enables a better coverage of weather-induced disturbances. Such a probabilistic sizing method entails a choice of percentile defining the span of disturbances to cover. Afterwards, the reserve needs sized must be partitioned between the different control reserves. Using historical data of Senegal’s electrical grid, it will be assessed how grid operation is impacted by the percentile choice as well as the partition of reserve needs if a probabilistic sizing approach were to be used.