Safety Risk Analysis of Small and Medium-sized Airports Based on Improved Bayesian Network Model

In 2023, China has 259 transportation airports (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), with 221 being small and medium-sized, handling less than 10 million passengers annually. These airports face shortages of personnel and equipment, complex operating environments, and limited management capabilities, making them vulnerable in civil aviation. This paper analyzes unsafe events at these airports from 2019 to 2023, focusing on factors such as timing, causes, and types of events. Utilizing Bayesian networks, the study infers uncertain information, predicting variable probability distributions under incomplete data. An improved Bayesian model assesses risk, tests correlations between various influencing factors, such as event types and consequences, and predicts various scenarios. Based on these findings, targeted safety suggestions are proposed for small and medium-sized airports, aiming to enhance their safety management and providing valuable insights for future improvements.