Migration Amidst Conflict and Cumulative Causation: An Analysis of International & Domestic Migration in Thailand’s Southernmost Provinces

Abstract Thailand’s southernmost provinces (TSP) have experienced prolonged insurgency violence and economic deprivation, leading to substantial outmigration. Examining how the two factors interact to shape migration decision-making will provide a broader understanding of how they influence migration in other regions. In this study, we hypothesize that: (1) Residents of TSP will be more likely to migrate out of their province if they reside in households and villages that are replete with migrant social networks, (2) The experience of insurgency violence in one’s proximity will have an association with migration, and (3) Migration networks at the household and village levels will interact with insurgency violence to influence first migration trips. We analyze data from a survey conducted among a representative sample of the Muslim adult population residing in TSP in 2014, with a follow-up survey in 2016. Householdand community-level variables included information on international and domestic first migration, cumulative migration context, insurgency events, and other individual- and household-level covariates. Generalized structural equation models indicate that the likelihood of a first outmigration is greater among adults residing in households and villages that have already accumulated international migration experience. The likelihood is also greater among those living in villages impacted by frequent insurgency violence incidents. The findings suggest that outmigration is underpinned by a combination of cumulative migration processes and violence. As rising segments of the world’s population undertake migration to both flee violence and to survive economically, it becomes increasingly important to develop theories that address both human and economic security concerns.