Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought with SPEI in the State of Mexico and Mexico City

Climate change and increasing water demand are causing supply problems in Mexico City and the State of Mexico. The lack of complete and up-to-date meteorological information makes it difficult to understand and analyze climate phenomena such as droughts. Climate Engine provides decades of climate data to analyze such changes. These data were used to calculate SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration index) at scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months between 1981 and 2023 in the study area. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) indicated greater homogeneity in temperature data, while precipitation data exhibited potential inhomogeneities. The Mann–Kendall test showed no significant trend for precipitation but a clear increasing trend in temperature. Droughts have become more frequent and severe over the last decade, particularly in the western State of Mexico and the southwest of Mexico City. The wettest years within the last 14 years were 2010, 2015, and 2018, while the most severe droughts occurred in 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. The findings suggest intensifying drought conditions, likely driven by rising temperatures and climate variability. These trends emphasize the need for improved water resource management and adaptation strategies to mitigate the growing impact of droughts in central Mexico.