Futures studies of development Tehran's urban- region in the globalization process

In present society, structural transformations within the economy, rapid advancements in science and technology, constraints on financial and human resources, the interdependence of nations, global competition, and the increasing trend toward globalization necessitate a more profound understanding of "change" and the "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, and individuals.Futures studies play a critical role in assisting policymakers and planners in the development of effective programs by enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among organizations and institutions.This research is applied in its objectives, descriptiveanalytical in its nature and methodology, and exploratory in its approach to scenario writing.Data were collected through both documentary and field methods.In the field method, a researcher-constructed questionnaire in the form of a cross-impact matrix was administered to experts for scoring the factors.Utilizing the Delphi method, 30 experts were selected, and questionnaires were distributed non-randomly through convenience sampling.The data were analyzed using MICMAC and MORPHOL software.The findings indicate that the urban-regional system of Tehran is in an unstable state.Ten key drivers were identified as influential in the development of the Tehran metropolitan area: dominant ideology, integrated management, expansion of information and communication technology infrastructure, e-commerce, enhancement of economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management systems, political transparency, facilitation of multinational companies' entry, and the expansion of urban diplomacy.Ultimately, the scenarios for the future development of the Tehran metropolitan area revealed eight potential outcomes.The first scenario, characterized by nine pessimistic assumptions and one intermediate assumption, was identified as having the highest probability of occurrence.