Metabolomic profile of severe COVID-19 and a signature predictive of progression towards severe disease status: a prospective cohort study (METCOVID)

Profound metabolomic alterations occur during COVID-19. Early identification of the subset of hospitalised COVID-19 patients at risk of developing severe disease is critical for optimal resource utilization and prompt treatment. This work explores the metabolomic profile of hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients with severe disease, and establishes a predictive signature for disease progression. Within 48 hours of admission, serum samples were collected from 148 hospitalised patients for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Lipoprotein profiling was performed using the ¹H-NMR-based Liposcale test, while low molecular weight metabolites were analysed using one-dimensional Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill pulse spectroscopy and an adaptation of the Dolphin method for lipophilic extracts. Severe COVID-19, per WHO's Clinical Progression Scale, was characterized by altered lipoprotein distribution, elevated signals of glyc-A and glyc-B, a shift towards a catabolic state with elevated levels of branched-chain amino acids, and accumulation of ketone bodies. Furthermore, COVID-19 patients initially presenting with moderate disease but progressing to severe stages exhibited a distinct metabolic signature. Our multivariate model demonstrated a cross-validated AUC of 0.82 and 72% predictive accuracy for severity progression. NMR spectroscopy-based metabolomic profiling enables the identification of moderate COVID-19 patients at risk of disease progression, aiding in resource allocation and early intervention.