How does social acceptance affect transition minerals production in Europe? A system dynamics approach and case study in Portugal

• Social acceptance in mining is key to achieve just energy transitions. • Interview-based causal loop diagram depicts mining-community dynamics. • Quantitative exploration of social acceptance effects on the Barroso lithium project in Portugal. • Trust-building and community engagement as decisive aspects of decarbonisation agendas. Against the backdrop of competing interests between mining developments, energy transition minerals procurement, and local communities striving to preserve their heritage and livelihoods, this paper delves into the dynamics between mining and social acceptance. Drawing from a participatory approach, the study offers qualitative and quantitative insights into this complex relationship. Cause-and-effect links surrounding social acceptance and mining activities are represented in a causal loop diagram (CLD), which illustrates how social acceptance is affected by trust, perceived procedural fairness, socioeconomic and environmental impacts, and (mis)alignment between government's and community's interests. The conceptual diagram aided the development of an adaptable quantitative system dynamics model, which is applied to a case study, the Barroso lithium project in Northern Portugal. Analysis reveals how low levels of social acceptance during initialisation and across the project lifecycle can lead to a significant decrease in operational performance and the amount of lithium recovered, while attempts to obtain the social licence to operate (SLO) are highly dependent on building genuine trust. The relevance of trust-building delays for decarbonisation agendas is also discussed. The paper concludes by delineating a future research agenda that points to embedding community engagement as core rather than side practice to leverage industry and policy decision-making towards just energy transitions.