Exploring interlinkages in land, energy, and water in cooking and agriculture sectors: A case study in Kenya

• This study develops a long-term CLEWs model for Kenya, integrating climate, land, energy, and water systems. • It examines energy-land interactions, focusing on cooking fuel and agricultural land use. • Three scenarios reveal transitions to cleaner cooking technologies and increased land demand while identifying data gaps and key uncertainties. • Agricultural expansion and wood fuel consumption impact forest cover, emphasizing the need for integrated policies. • The model supports policy assessment by identifying trade-offs and synergies in Kenya’s energy and agricultural sectors. This study contributes to the Climate, Land, Energy, and Water system (CLEWs) framework by developing an integrated model for Kenya capturing the interdependencies between climate, land, energy, and water systems. Focusing on cooking and crop production, it examines their contributions to land use changes, mainly deforestation, and emissions. We evaluate three scenarios—BAU, SC1, and SC2- that target clean cooking transitions and reduced crop imports, covering seven crops representing 72 % of Kenya's cultivated area. We detail the challenges of gathering data to populate such a model through document examination and literature review, and we identified uncertain input parameters. Results show that forest loss from cooking varies with the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB). Under BAU, forest cover loss could range from 300 km² at an fNRB of 0.3 to 900 km² at 0.9. Scenarios SC1 and SC2 mitigate these impacts through cleaner cooking solutions. By 2050, under the clean cooking scenario (SC2), LPG stoves could achieve up to 96 % penetration, reducing CO 2 emissions to 8.3 MTon and PM 2.5 to 0.8 kTon, compared to high emissions in the BAU scenario dominated by wood and charcoal stoves. In agriculture, land use expands by 56 %, 69 %, and 33 % across the scenarios, while fossil fuel use rises from 2.46 PJ to 5.9 PJ by 2050, increasing CO 2 emissions, from 183 kTon to 436 kTon. The findings highlight the need for integrated policies promoting clean cooking, sustainable agriculture, and deforestation mitigation. This integrated CLEWs approach provides actional insights for reducing deforestation and emissions in energy and agriculture sectors.