Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Abstract. Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Published
2025-02-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
Citations
13
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
14.37

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article

Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

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Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Climate variability and models
14.37
article

Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Christoph Mudersbach, Ting‐Chen Chen, Florian Ellsäßer, Jürg Luterbacher, Svenja Szemkus, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Ginete Pinto, Hendrik Feldmann, Sara M. Vallejo‐Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, Jens Heinke, Frederik Wolf, Laura Suárez‐Gutiérrez, Petra Friederichs, Markus Augenstein, Efi Rousi, Susanna Mohr, Elena Xoplaki, Lisa Jach, Karsten Haustein, Felix Simon, Daniel Gliksman, Niklas Luther, Stefan Kollet, Laura Goulier, Christoph Müller, Florian Knutzen
article en
13 citations

Abstract

Abstract. Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.

Natural hazards and earth system sciencesVol. 25(2)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE), University of Hohenheim (DE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Bonn (DE), Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE), University of Potsdam (DE), Norsk Hydro (Germany) (DE), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (DE), Leibniz Association (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (DE), Bochum University of Applied Sciences (DE), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), Freie Universität Berlin (DE), Technische Universität Dresden (DE), Leipzig University (DE), University of Twente (NL)
U.S. Department of Energy, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Horizon 2020
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Climate variability and models
14.37
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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