Economic Voting or Class Voting? An Analysis of the Factors Driving Incumbent Vote Choice

This paper examines the relationship between social class, economic perceptions, and their influence on voting behavior, particularly regarding support for incumbents. Leveraging political science research, it investigates how distinct economic experiences and challenges across social classes shape perceptions of the economy and incumbent policies, influencing electoral choices. The paper seeks to answer three critical questions: the impact of economic perceptions on voting for the incumbent, the interaction between social class and economic perceptions on voting behavior, and how social class moderates this relationship. Utilizing logistic regression models, the research highlights how social class and economic perceptions interact to influence voting decisions, contributing to the discourse on class voting's impact. The findings offer new insights into the dynamics of voting behavior, emphasizing the enduring importance of social class in political decision-making, and enriching our understanding of electoral dynamics in incumbent elections.