Effects of Different Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties Addressing the Agriculture Climate Interactions in Temperature Regions of Yield

Agricultural productions are deeply affected by the phenological changes, especially in Shanxi Province, where Southern Shanxi is the main production area of winter wheat. Studying the phenological changes of this region and clarifying the effects of varieties and sowing dates on the phenological characteristics of southern Shanxi can be used for efficient introduction and scientific sowing. We have analyzed the meteorological datasets, phenological period data, and crop management data of seven observation points in the main winter wheat producing areas of Shanxi Province from 1992 to 2021. Trend analysis was used to analyze the time variation trend of various meteorological factors from 1992 to 2021. These results showed that the growth period was mainly advanced, especially in Changzhi and Yuncheng. The sensitivity analysis showed that the growth period of most sites were positively correlated with the sensitivity of various climate factors. Except for jointing to heading stage, the sensitivity of the duration of other growth stages to average temperature was positive, indicating that high temperature had an effect on effective vernalization and early reproductive growth of winter wheat. The modeling results showed that the growth period of winter wheat in Shanxi showed a trend of delay from sowing to ripening, and the sensitivity to temperature showed an increasing trend from sowing to ripening, while the sensitivity to precipitation was the opposite. Meanwhile, an earlier sowing date will make winter wheat develop earlier in warm climate conditions, requiring attention to cold prevention after winter. It is recommended to plant YH-20410 or YH-805 as suitable varieties in the Yuncheng area. In the future, this area can also moderately introduce new varieties with high heat requirements, which can, to some extent, offset the negative impacts of climate change.