The effect of the Spirulina platensis market price, C-phycocyanin selling price and process scale on the techno-economic profitability of a commercial, cosmetic-grade C-phycocyanin process in South Africa

Abstract Across the food, beverages and cosmetics industries, the demand for bio-based pigments has risen, as the health and environmental risks of artificial colourants have become more evident. C-phycocyanin (C-PC), known for its vibrant blue colour and broad health benefits, has successfully found application in the food and beverages industries, but its application in the cosmetics industry has not been as extensively explored. This study investigates the impact of the Spirulina platensis ( Spirulina ) market price, C-PC price, and process scale on the techno-economic feasibility of producing cosmetic-grade C-PC from Spirulina in South Africa, utilising a sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. The study demonstrated that C-PC pricing and production scale significantly impact economic viability, while Spirulina market price has a negligible effect. C-PC price considerably impacts profitability due to its non-linear, direct correlation with revenue. Process scale also significantly affects profitability, influenced by economies of scale during scale-up, and the balance between fixed and variable costs. From the Monte Carlo simulations, it was found that a 100% probability of profitability was achieved at a minimum C-PC selling price of 480 US$ kg -1 at a production scale of 200 kg Spirulina input per batch, even with a Spirulina market price ranging between 6 and 18 US$ kg -1 . At a smaller process scale of 123 kg Spirulina input per batch, the minimum C-PC selling price to achieve profitability was found to be 535 US$ kg -1 . An equation was constructed which yields the minimum C-PC selling price between 123 kg and 174 kg Spirulina input per batch, wherein the probability of profitability was 97% with respect to the internal rate of return (IRR). This analysis highlights the necessity of optimising C-PC pricing and process scale to maximize returns. By providing a comprehensive economic overview which critically evaluates the uncertainty in pertinent and uncontrollable input variables, the research provides evidence in favour of the commercial viability of producing C-PC on South African soil, thereby supporting its bioeconomy strategy and motivating for the development of the biomaterials value chain.