Forecasting the evolution of the current unrest of Campi Flegrei by defining anomalies through experts’ elicitation
The Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, is considered one of the most high-risk volcanic areas on the planet due to its location within the metropolitan area of Naples. Campi Flegrei caldera is currently undergoing unrest. The unrest is linked to an uplift phase that started in 2005, which is accompanied by gas emissions and volcano-tectonic seismicity. Owing to the limited knowledge of the plumbing system and the pre-eruptive processes, tracking the evolution of a volcanic unrest is often based on probabilities obtained by experts’ elicitation. In this work, we present the daily variation of the probability that the unrest is driven by a shallow magma movement and the monthly probability of eruption based on the Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) model calibrated for Campi Flegrei by means of the outcomes of the VI experts’ elicitation carried out in 2015. The results show that according to the interpretive framework provided by experts, the probability that the mechanism behind the current unrest is shallow magma movements is not negligible, but the monthly probability of eruption remained overall constant during the entire period.
Authors
- Luca Crescentini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6877-0074)
- Salvatore Ferrara (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5605-8573)
- Valerio Acocella (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1258-9401)
- Walter De Cesare
- Micol Todesco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5939-0985)
- Deepak Garg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2463-5185)
- M. Castellano (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1166-3486)
- Luca D’Auria (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7664-2216)
- Massimo D’Antonio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2077-943X)
- Stefano Caliro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8522-6695)
- Lucia Zaccarelli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4053-7625)
- Mario La Rocca (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2059-5350)
- A. Mangiacapra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8393-923X)
- Patrizia Ricciolino
- Zaccaria Petrillo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6521-9634)
- Flora Giudicepietro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6198-8655)
- Matteo Bagagli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9409-8667)
- Antonella Longo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6902-0160)
- Francesca Bianco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5400-7724)
- Simona Petrosino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5042-0244)
- Laura Sandri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3254-2336)
- Dmitri Rouwet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3366-3882)
- Prospero De Martino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9584-3347)
- Rosario Peluso (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6276-5832)
- Chiara Montagna (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6884-8401)
- Giovanni Chiodini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0628-8055)
- Massimo Orazi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2772-2989)
- Edoardo Del Pezzo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6981-5967)
- Paolo Papale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-2124)
- Antonietta M. Esposito (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2192-3720)
- Sven Borgström (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8031-8980)
- Bruno Capaccioni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1705-7279)
- Danilo Galluzzo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8952-9271)
- Warner Marzocchi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9114-1516)
- Jacopo Selva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6263-6934)
- Umberto Tammaro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-6064)
- R. Scarpa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4680-1324)
- Elicitation VI Working Group Elicitation VI Working Group
Institutions
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
- Scuola Superiore Meridionale (IT)
- University of Naples Federico II (IT)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Annals of Geophysics
- Published
- 2025-02-07
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-9148
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Geological and Geochemical Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.73
Funders
- Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia