Sr Winter is coming… To Colombia?

This document analyses the macroeconomic effects that may occur in Colombia due to the problems that have arisen in the energy markets of Europe, China and the United States, because of the COVID pandemic and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, at the end of 2022. For this, a soft-link is made between a Global VAR, which allows seeing the interactions between the Colombian economy and its international environment, with a Consistence Stock-Flow Model, which within an accounting framework allows interactions between the financial and real sectors. of the economy. It is found that i) global inflationary pressures have been transferred to the national context, exacerbating internal inflation ii) the adjustment of international interest rates in response to inflation can generate a significant outflow of capital flows from Colombia and iii) the slowdown in aggregate demand produces stagnation in GDP growth, giving rise to a possible scenario of stagflation or recession.