Aviation Safety at the Brink: Unveiling the Hidden Dangers of Wind-Shear-Related Aircraft-Missed Approaches

Aircraft-missed approaches pose significant safety challenges, particularly under adverse weather conditions like wind shear. This study examines the critical factors influencing wind-shear-related missed approaches at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) using Pilot Report (PIREP) data from 2015 to 2023. A Binary Logistic Model (BLM) with L1 (Lasso) and L2 (Ridge) regularization was applied to both balanced and imbalanced datasets, with the balanced dataset created using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The performance of the BLM on the balanced data demonstrated a good model fit, with Hosmer–Lemeshow statistics of 5.91 (L1) and 5.90 (L2). The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were slightly lower for L1 regularization, at 1528.77 and 1574.35, respectively, compared to 1528.86 and 1574.66 for L2. Cohen’s Kappa values were 0.266 for L1 and 0.253 for L2, reflecting moderate agreement between observed and predicted outcomes and improved performance compared to the imbalanced data. The analysis identified designated-approach runway, aircraft classification, wind shear source, and vertical proximity of wind shear to runway as the most influential factors. Runways 07R and 07C, gust fronts as wind shear sources, and wind shear occurring within 400 ft of the runway posed the highest risk for missed approaches. Narrow-body aircrafts also demonstrated greater susceptibility to turbulence-induced missed approaches. These findings show the importance of addressing these risk factors and enhancing safety protocols for adverse weather conditions.