Predicting Potential Suitable Habitats of Three Rare Wild Magnoliaceae Species (Michelia crassipes, Lirianthe coco, Manglietia insignis) Under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on the Maxent Model

In recent years, the impacts of climate change and human activities have intensified the loss and fragmentation of habitats for wild rare Magnoliaceae. Predicting the potential impacts of future climate change on the suitable habitat distribution of wild and endangered Magnoliaceae species is of great significance for their conservation and application. This study employs the optimized MaxEnt model to investigate current and future potential suitable habitats of three rare Magnoliaceae species (<i>Michelia crassipes</i>, <i>Lirianthe coco</i>, and <i>Manglietia insignis</i>). The dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of three species were also explored. The results showed the following: (1) The potential habitat range of three Magnoliaceae species currently span from 92-122° N and 19-36° E. Variables associated with temperature (bio2, bio9, bio4) and altitude (Ele) significantly influence the distribution of these species, with precipitation (bio17) and ultraviolet radiation (UVB4) playing a minor role. The warm and humid climate in central and southern China is highly conducive to their growth. (2) Under the SSP126 scenario, after the mid-21st century, the suitable habitat area of <i>Michelia crassipes</i> has undergone a fluctuating trend of initial increase followed by decrease, reducing to 51.84 × 10⁴ km² in 2090. On the other hand, both the suitable habitat areas of <i>Lirianthe coco</i> and <i>Manglietia insignis</i> show an upward trend. Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the total suitable habitat areas of these three rare Magnoliaceae species gradually decrease. (3) We compared the priority protection areas with existing Protected Areas (PAs) in gap analysis; 96.84% of priority conservation areas are lacking effective protection. (4) The distribution centroid is constantly moving to western China. In order to address habitat fragmentation, it is recommended that the range of natural reserves be expanded and ecological corridors be established in the future, preferably according to the predicted suitable climate for protected areas and refuges or habitats for these species. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for the preservation, stewardship, and utilization of the endangered species of Magnoliaceae under the circumstances of projected global climate change.