Assessment of the risk of developing diseases characterized by high blood pressure in metallurgical workers

Introduction. Mathematical models are widely used in various fields of science and practice, including medicine. The use of mathematical modeling is the only way to assess the simultaneous impact on the health of workers of many interrelated factors, including harmful production factors. Metallurgical production is one of the leading sectors of the region's economy, in which more than 70% of workers are employed in harmful working conditions. The task of using mathematical models to assess the impact of various risk factors on the development of circulatory system diseases in workers engaged in harmful working conditions remains urgent. The study aims to build a predictive mathematical model to assess the contribution of risk factors to the development of diseases characterized by high blood pressure in metallurgical workers. Materials and methods. The researchers examined the results of periodic medical examinations of 2,927 men in metallurgical production and their working conditions. They have created a database that includes information on the assessment of the class of working conditions, medical and biological indicators, and survey data. The authors also established the prevalence of the disease in the ICD-10 block (110–115) "Diseases characterized by high blood pressure", depending on the class of working conditions and length of service. To build a predictive model for assessing the impact of various risk factors on the development of diseases characterized by high blood pressure, the authors used the method of multiple linear regression. They determined the quality of the model by the value of the coefficient of determination. Results. It was found that with increasing age and length of service, the rate of increase in the prevalence of diseases characterized by high blood pressure increased faster with worsening conditions. The most significant predictors of the development of diseases characterized by high blood pressure were the product of seniority on body mass index and seniority on blood glucose levels. Limitation. A single-stage cross-sectional study was conducted, limited by the results of a one-year medical examination of employees. Conclusion. It is advisable to use mathematical models to identify key risk factors in the development of a disease for the subsequent development of targeted medical and preventive measures aimed at its correction. Ethics. The study was approved by the local Ethics Committee of the Yekaterinburg Medical and Scientific Center for Prevention and Health Protection of Industrial Workers of Rospotrebnadzor (conclusion No. 6 dated 12/11/2023).