El Niño and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts global weather, with strong El Niño events often linked to prolonged dry conditions in Southeast Asia. While several high-impact El Niño events have coincided with prolonged dry conditions, leading to droughts, the underlying causal mechanisms remain complex and incompletely understood. In this study, we develop a minimal, data-driven model to quantify the conditions under which ENSO events amplify prolonged dry conditions risk in Southeast Asia. Unlike correlation-based approaches, our model identifies thresholds in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric water vapour content that increase the probability of prolonged dry conditions. Our results show that when ENSO-induced anomalies exceed specific temperature and atmospheric thresholds, prolonged dry conditions probability rises significantly, aligning with observed historical droughts. Additionally, the model reveals periods where this link weakens due to competing regional climate factors, suggesting that certain conditions mitigate the typical ENSO-prolonged dry conditions connection. These findings provide a more nuanced understanding of ENSO-driven prolonged dry conditions variability, offering a probabilistic predictive framework with potential applications in climate adaptation, agricultural planning, and regional resource management.
Authors
- Yuzuru Sato (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6753-2218)
- Tommaso Alberti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6096-0220)
- Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8085-9621)
- Gabriele Messori (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211)
- B. Dubrulle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3644-723X)
- Pascal Yiou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8534-5355)
- Robin Noyelle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0127-6602)
- Mathieu Vrac (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6176-0439)
- Adriano Gualandi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3100-8932)
- Lucas Fery (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3679-5645)
- Gianmarco Mengaldo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0157-5477)
- Davide Faranda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698)
- Chenyu Dong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4494-7398)
Institutions
- Uppsala University (SE)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Hokkaido University (JP)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR)
- Université Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR)
- CEA Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Swedish Species Information Centre (SE)
- London Mathematical Laboratory (GB)
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Physical review. E
- Published
- 2025-06-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.111.064209
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Commission
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- Vetenskapsrådet
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
- Horizon 2020