Forecasting Dog Bite Incidents: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series Analysis

Abstract Introduction: This study, driven by the high incidence of dog bites in India and the fatality risk of rabies, utilised Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis to forecast dog bite trends in a metropolitan tertiary care hospital. Materials and Methods: A record-based study with data from January 2019 to October 2023 at a Mumbai tertiary care institution employed the ARIMA model with SPSS to forecast dog bite cases from November 2023 to December 2024. Results: The ARIMA analysis showed a dip in dog bite cases before summer, reaching the lowest point in December 2024, followed by an increase in summer. This trend was consistent across total, Category III, unprovoked and stray dog bite cases. Conclusions: Proactive measures, such as vaccine procurement and cold chain maintenance for anti-rabies vaccines and rabies immunoglobulins, are essential during peak seasons to ensure preparedness and effective public health management.