Sri Sai Tea: unraveling the forecasting conundrum

Learning outcomes This case study aims to familiarize the participants with the functioning of the herbal tea industry in an emerging economy like India; understand core concepts, key terminologies and the business relevance of different types of business forecasting; and execute time series forecasting models using MS Excel and interpreting the results. Case overview/synopsis This case study unveils an important operational concern faced by Deepshika Das, the production manager at Sri Sai Tea Trading Company located at Cuttack in Odisha, India, about future sales projections. The company was gaining popularity for a unique herbal tea called “Chaa Lemon Tea.” However, the company had been experiencing frequent overstocking and understocking due to inappropriate qualitative forecasting. This case study underscores the importance of the concepts associated with quantitative forecasting. It demonstrates the analysis of time series data, building forecasting models and their interpretations using MS Excel. Complexity academic level This case study can be used as a systematic learning tool for postgraduate business school students and master’s level industrial engineering students. This case study can be discussed in courses such as operations and supply chain management, business statistics and quantitative decision-making. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.