Environmental impact and priority assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Balikpapan City, Indonesia

This study was conducted to determine waste management strategies for the Balikpapan City government by predicting emissions from the existing waste management system and analyzing the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on several waste management scenarios. This research was conducted in five stages: (1) defining the boundaries of the waste management system, (2) data collection and inventory, (3) analysis of solid waste generation and composition, (4) analysis of GHG emissions using the emission quantification tool (EQT), and (5) identifying criteria and scenario priority using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The scenario was developed into three possible scenarios, namely, scenario (A) which means to meet the target of regional policies and strategies, scenario (B) which means to meet the target of the Local Action Plan–Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction by East Kalimantan and scenario, scenario (C) which means ideal scenario with 100 % waste collection that the waste collection ratio is 60 % collected by the informal waste sector and 40 % collected by the formal sector. The results showed that Scenario C results in a 156 % reduction in GHG emissions when compared to the BAU Scenario. Based on the AHP results, environmental, policymaking, and social are the prioritized criteria affecting waste management scenarios with values of 40, 16, and 15, respectively. Furthermore, the AHP results showed that scenario C, with a value of 52 %, is the most prioritized compared to scenarios A and B. • GHG emission reduction is key to Balikpapan City's waste management strategy • Three scenarios (A, B, C) were assessed, with Scenario C cutting CH₄, CO₂, and N₂O emissions the most • AHP results show environmental, policy, and social criteria are crucial for scenario success • Stakeholder coordination is needed to implement selected waste management scenarios