Scheduling, Income, and School Closures: Unlocking the Key Drivers of Home Care Personal Support Unplanned Absences Through Time-to-Event Regression Analysis

Healthcare workers' unplanned workplace absences are a global challenge with consequences for care recipients, employers, and healthcare systems. With rising home care demand, understanding drivers of home care personal support worker (PSW) absences can inform management of labor supply through government and employer policies. In this paper, we examined predictors of PSWs' unplanned absences within a large, administrative, longitudinal dataset (2019-2021) from a home care organization in Ontario, stratified by time (pre-, early-, and mid-pandemic). After an initial spike, unplanned absence rates were generally lower during the pandemic. Cox-proportional hazard regression models for unplanned absences highlighted how increasing income and reducing travel distance between visits can be expected to decrease the hazard of unplanned absences. School closures significantly correlated with unplanned absences, highlighting disruptions within the broader care economy. As demand for home care accelerates, reducing unplanned absences will improve care consistency for those relying on PSWs to remain safe at home.