Investigating the Water, Ecosystem, and Agriculture Nexus in Three Inland River Basins of the Arid Hexi Corridor, China, Using Integrated Hydrological Modeling

The Water–Ecosystem–Agriculture (WEA) relationship is pivotal to the sustainable development of arid and semi-arid areas. The WEA nexus in these areas is essential for making policies towards sustainable development. This study aims to explore the WEA nexus in three large inland river basins (Heihe River Basin, Shiyang River Basin, and Shule River Basin) in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, using an integrated hydrological modeling approach. The integrated model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data, achieving Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranging from 0.83 to 0.94 in the validation period. The major findings are as follows. First, altering the amount of irrigation water significantly affects hydrological and ecological processes in both midstream and downstream areas, influencing the WEA nexus. For example, a 20% reduction in irrigation demand led to a 0.46 billion m3/year recovery in midstream groundwater storage and a 4.3% increase in downstream ecosystem health, but resulted in a 5.4% decrease in midstream agricultural productivity. Second, intense trade-offs among agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, and groundwater sustainability were identified. These trade-offs are highly sensitive to water management strategies, particularly those affecting groundwater sustainability. Third, implementing stricter groundwater-level drawdown constraints significantly improved groundwater sustainability and ecosystem health. Fourth, this study highlighted unique WEA nexus characteristics in each of the three basins. This study provides insights into the understanding the complex WEA nexus, and the quantitative results underscore the trade-offs and synergies within the WEA nexus, providing a foundation for informed decision-making in water resource management.