A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Factor Analysis of Production–Living–Ecological Land in China’s Main Grain Producing Areas: A Case Study of the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt

The Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt (HREEB) is a pivotal region in China’s national strategic planning. Land use in this region is crucial to improving ecological quality and ensuring food security. Using the PLUS model and Geodetector, we evaluated the contribution and interaction of 10 drivers to production–living–ecological land (PLEL) and performed multi-scenario simulations of PLEL. The results show that the following: (1) Ecological land is mainly affected by elevation (contribution value > 0.16 for forest, grassland, and water). Production land is influenced by topographic relief, elevation, and GDP per capita (contribution value > 0.13). Living land is driven by topographic relief, GDP per capita, elevation, and population density (contribution value > 0.13). Interaction analysis shows nonlinear or two-factor enhancement among factors. (2) Ecological land in the HREEB has a relatively stable spatial pattern. Simulation results indicate that ecological land will not exceed a 12% change in the next 50 years. (3) By 2075, simulations under various scenarios predict significant changes in land area. Compared with the natural development scenario, production land increased by 14.8% in the farmland protection scenario, and living land increased by 14.3% in the urban development scenario. This research is vital for managing and developing PLEL resources within the HREEB.