Evaluation and Obstacle Factors of Renewable Energy Substitution Potential in Underdeveloped Rural Areas of China

The energy consumption structure in underdeveloped rural areas of China has long been dominated by fossil fuels. Such a structure not only makes it difficult to improve the rural living environment but also hinders the stable development of the rural economy. For these regions, improving the living environment is one of the key tasks of China’s rural revitalization strategy. As a clean energy with huge potential, renewable energy can provide a convenient and low-cost solution for the transformation of the energy structure and the improvement of the living environment in these areas. This study takes Gansu Province, a typical underdeveloped region in China, as the research area and uses a multi-objective evaluation analysis model to evaluate the potential for renewable energy substitution at the county scale in rural areas of Gansu Province. Then, through the obstacle factor analysis model, the obstacle factors of the potential for renewable energy substitution are revealed, providing a basis for the scientific formulation of energy policies and the stable development of the rural economy in underdeveloped areas. This study found that the potential for renewable energy substitution in counties of Gansu Province is generally low and shows significant temporal and spatial differences. At the criterion level, the endowment of renewable energy resources constitutes the greatest obstacle, with an average obstacle degree of 8.91%, and shows an upward trend. At the factor level, the obstacle degree of the effective irrigated area is the highest, with an average obstacle degree of 9.29%, and the interannual variation is relatively stable. In addition, the average obstacle degrees of total agricultural machinery power and the number of rural populations are also relatively high. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions, such as rationally planning the development model of renewable energy, coordinating regions to give full play to economic value, and innovatively developing to enhance development capacity, in order to provide reference for relevant decision-making.