Exploring the resource nexus between forest-based land restoration and food security: The case of the African great green wall initiative countries

Land restoration is often considered crucial for improving food security, although the complex causal relationship between the two remains unclear. Forests established through land restoration efforts can contribute positively by providing direct food sources or enhancing ecosystem services, yet afforestation efforts may have unintended negative impacts, such as reducing soil moisture and lowering water tables, which could potentially exacerbate food insecurity. This paper contributes to the literature by exploring the complex association between a large-scale forest-based land restoration project and food security in the African Great Green Wall (GGW) countries. We utilized FAO survey data on food insecurity from 2015 to 2019, along with near-real-time Land Use Land Cover classification (LULC) generated by deep learning on Sentinel 2 images. Our findings indicate that GGW countries have lower food insecurity compared to non-GGW countries over the considered years. An increase in forest cover, used as a proxy indicator of land restoration, is positively correlated with a reduction in food insecurity. We also find that food insecurity varies across GGW countries, depending on their overall country fragility level. By factoring in country fragility and social sustainability indicators, this study provides a nuanced perspective on how context-specific factors in GGW countries—such as land tenure policies and governance structures—shape food security outcomes. This study highlights the importance of aligning land restoration efforts with social goals, including food security, tenure security, human development, peace, and effective governance. Such an integrated approach can maximize the achievement of multiple social and environmental benefits, ensuring more sustainable and impactful outcomes. • In fragile contexts, restoration benefits may be limited or delayed by conflict or weak governance. • Land tenure and effective governance are key to effective sustainable land management. • Integrated approach with social factors maximizes restoration outcomes.