Assessing the Impact of Tax on Enterprises in Bengaluru: Insights from Poisson and Machine learning Models

Small businesses in Bengaluru, particularly those categorized as Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), have encountered numerous challenges, especially amid the ongoing pandemic lockdowns. However, the initial turbulence experienced during the GST rollout appears to have subsided for many MSMEs in Bengaluru. This study aims to explore the perceptions and impacts of GST on local small businesses. Factors such as satisfaction and awareness regarding GST are also examined. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted to collect responses from MSME owners across Bengaluru. These responses underwent analysis using various statistical methods. Although the Poisson model struggles with more rounds, the Random Forest model provides improved fit and prediction accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.422. The findings suggest that perceptions of GST among Bengaluru’s MSMEs vary depending on the type of enterprise. Moreover, GST has gained widespread acceptance among MSMEs in the region, with many reporting positive impacts from its implementation. This study illuminates the nuances of GST’s effects on Bengaluru’s MSME sector, providing valuable insights for both theory and practice.