Technology and evolution of occupational employment in Egypt (1998–2018): a task-based framework

Purpose Following a task-based framework, this paper investigates the impact of technology on occupational employment in Egypt (1998–2018) by examining the employment implications of the Routine-biased Technological Change (RBTC) hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach The study estimates quadratic ordinary least squares and kernel-smoothing regressions to explore changes in occupational employment. Decomposition analysis and logistic regression are then applied to assess the role of occupational task content against other occupation-specific factors in accounting for these changes. Additionally, a transition probability matrix is calculated to validate the presumption that routine workers are more likely to switch their occupational task category, predominantly to manual occupations. Findings The RBTC hypothesis is partially supported. First, employment evolution is closer to a downgrading pattern than a polarizing one. Second, routine employment experiences an overall decline and is dominated by middle-skilled workers. However, the low routinization exposure makes it not dominant in the middle-skill distribution. Third, task content significantly explains the decline in routine employment relative to abstract rather than manual employment. Finally, routine workers have the highest transition probability, moving mostly to abstract occupations. Originality/value This study is the first in Egypt to address the technology-employment nexus by directly applying a task-based framework. It fills the gap in the existing literature by addressing the relationship over a relatively longer period and employing direct measures of task content of detailed occupations, classified based on the most recent occupational classification (ISCO-08).