Market Development Potential of Flying Cars: An Analysis Based on Discrete Choice Model

Electric flying cars, also known as electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) are expected to play a transformational role in urban mobility. They can reduce traffic congestion, significantly enhancing transportation efficiency in populated areas such as big cities. Despite the great development potential of flying cars, their market size is largely unexplored, resulting in a large research gap. Research about market size and customer preference could justify the scale and potential of the flying car market, thereby helping companies’ market decisions, governments’ policymaking, and researchers’ R&D efforts. In this study, based on the data from New York taxi operations and the cost calculation of electric flying cars, we established a consumer discrete choice model, predicted the possibility of consumers choosing flying cars for transportation, and projected the market size of electric flying cars. The results show that 128,000 flying car missions are in demand, which further demonstrates the development potential for them. To improve the market size, advancements in battery technologies, well-established infrastructure, and highly efficient flying car operation management are required.