Predicting turbidity dynamics in small reservoirs in central Kenya using remote sensing and machine learning

• Turbidity dynamics were modelled with remote sensing and secondary spatial data. • Important turbidity predictor groups were identified with machine learning. • Small reservoirs may exert complex predictor-turbidity relationships. • Machine learning can increase knowledge of small reservoir water quality in Africa. Small reservoirs are increasingly common across Africa. They provide decentralised access to water and support farmer-led irrigation, in addition to contributing towards mitigating the impacts of climate change. Water quality monitoring is essential to ensure the safe use of water and to understand the impact of the environment and land use on water quality. However, water quality in small reservoirs is often not monitored continuously, with the interlinkages between weather, land, and water remaining unknown. Turbidity is a prime indicator of water quality that can be assessed with remote sensing techniques. Here we modelled turbidity in 34 small reservoirs in central Kenya with Sentinel-2 data from 2017 to 2023 and predicted turbidity outcomes using primary and secondary Earth observation data, and machine learning. We found distinct monthly turbidity patterns. Random forest and gradient boosting models showed that annual turbidity outcomes depend on meteorological variables, topography, and land cover (R 2 = 0.46 and 0.43 respectively), while longer-term turbidity was influenced more strongly by land management and land cover (R 2 = 0.88 and 0.72 respectively). Our results suggest that short- and longer-term turbidity prediction can inform reservoir siting and management. However, inter-annual variability prediction could benefit from more knowledge of additional factors that may not be fully captured in commonly available geospatial data. This study contributes to the relatively small body of remote sensing-based research on water quality in small reservoirs and supports improved small-scale water management.