Identifying the driving forces of embodied emissions from intermediate goods export

This study investigates the changes in CO 2 emissions associated with intermediate exports in Japan, China, the US, and Europe from 2000 to 2021. Using a novel structural decomposition analysis (SDA) framework, we analyze the impact of intermediate goods trade structures on emissions amidst globalization, slowbalization, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shifts. Our analysis highlights that emissions embodied in exports significantly vary by region and period. China has the highest emissions due to rapid industrial growth, while developed regions like Japan, the US, and Europe show different trends. The sectoral analysis identifies manufacturing industries as key contributors to intermediate goods export emissions. Meanwhile, SDA shows that technological improvements generally reduce emissions, and final demand and trade effects increase them. The findings emphasize the need for coordinated efforts to address the environmental impacts of globalization, and the importance of future research to refine emission accounting models and explore the effects of emerging economic trends on global carbon emissions. • Intermediate goods exports account for over half of CO 2 emissions in global trade. • US emissions from intermediate exports fell during 2000–2021, unlike other regions. • China's 2021 metal exports contributed over 200 Mt-CO 2 , a 4.3-fold rise since 2000. • Scale and technology effects are the most significant drivers of emission changes. • Downstream effects raise emissions slightly while upstream and exports vary by region.