How can urban expansion and ecological preservation be balanced? A simulation of the spatial dynamics of production-living-ecological spaces in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt

• This study employs the Future Land Use Simulation model for forecasting. • Transitions in land use significantly affect ecological conservation. • Land use changes exhibit significant spatiotemporal differences in multi-scenarios. • Attention is needed on environmental deterioration due to urban expansion. The rapid urbanization process in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt not only encroaches upon ecological space but also disrupts the symbiotic balance among production space, living space, and ecological space. This disruption highlights the growing tensions between industrial expansion, residential development, and the preservation of natural habitats, thereby escalating environmental challenges in the region. This study utilizes a combination of the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Markov model to analyze how various developmental scenarios might influence the spatial dynamics of the Production-Living-Ecological Spaces (PLES) structure. The findings reveal: (1) a distinct geographical differentiation of the PLES within the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt, with production and living spaces dispersed across urban areas and ecological space predominantly situated in the central and western regions; (2) an expansion of living space while production and ecological spaces are contracting, indicating significant urbanization, with the transition of living space primarily occurring through the conversion of agricultural land; (3) a relatively stable structural composition of the PLES projected by 2030, with production space still prevailing. Future expansions of living space are expected to be prominent, following a radial expansion pattern from urban centers to peripheral areas. Overall, considering the vulnerability of production space to further encroachment, future strategies for the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt should prioritize protecting high-quality farmland and critical ecological zones, while regulating urban expansion and strengthening land-use planning to ensure PLES sustainability. The government land management departments should adopt a flexible land-use policy with real-time monitoring to address current policy gaps and balance economic growth with ecological conservation.