Enhancing Hospital Mortality Prediction for Heart Failure Patients through Hyperparameter Optimization and Interpretability Analysis with LIME and SHAP

Heart failure is one of the primary causes for deaths caused in the hospital. Predicting mortality rate of such patients is extremely important for the efficient use of health care resources. This research aims to estimate the hospital mortality rate of Heart Failure(HF) patients using machine learning(ML). Using computational technique, the obtained model has given the most efficient accuracy. This paper uses the classification model to detect two outcomes (0 and 1, i.e., if the patient will survive or not). The classification models used for the hospital mortality prediction are, single classifiers such as Logistic regression, SVM, KNN, Decision tree (Ginni and Entropy);with Logistic regression obtaining highest accuracy of 88.9%, Bagging and boosting models such as Randomforest, Adaptive boosting, Gradient boosting, XG boosting, Categorical boosting; with CatBoost obtaining highest accuracy of 90.2%. To achieve the best accuracy, ensemble models were used out of which ensemble classifier ensemble gave 91.1% accuracy. To understand the features playing important role in decision making, explainable AI(XAI) is used. LIME and SHAP are considered. LIME generated local explanations, it explained the decision of a complex model for a specific instance or observation. In contrast, SHAP provided global explanations, it explained the overall behavior of the model across all instances.