Future-Proofing EU-27 Energy Policies with AI: Analyzing and Forecasting Fossil Fuel Trends

The energy sector plays a pivotal role in economic development, societal progress, and environmental sustainability, yet heavy reliance on fossil fuels remains a major challenge for achieving climate neutrality. Within this context, the European Union (EU-27) has committed to ambitious climate goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, making it a critical region for studying energy transition. This study analyzes the determinants of fossil fuels’ share (SFF) in final energy consumption at the aggregate EU-27 level over a 19-year period (2004–2022) and forecasts trends in the region’s energy transition through 2030. Using a random forest (RF) regressor, complex nonlinear relationships between SFF and six key predictors—GDP, population, industrial production, CO2 emissions, renewable energy share (SRE), and energy intensity—were modeled. Model interpretability was enhanced through Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), revealing CO2 emissions and SRE as the dominant predictors with opposing effects on SFF. Interaction effects highlighted the synergistic role of emission reduction and renewable energy adoption in minimizing fossil fuel reliance. GDP, while less influential overall, exhibited a significant negative relationship with SFF during early growth stages. Forecasts indicate a steady decline in fossil fuel reliance, from 1.8% in 2022 to 1.33% by 2030, supporting the EU’s climate objectives by emphasizing the importance of renewable energy adoption and emission control. This study demonstrates the transformative potential of machine learning and explainable AI (XAI) techniques in providing actionable insights to advance the EU-27’s sustainability journey.