Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions

Abstract Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non‐Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid‐latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non‐symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time‐mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held‐Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time‐mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.