Epidemiological trends in the burden of chronic kidney disease due to lead exposure in China from 1990 to 2021 compared to global, and projections until 2050

Lead is an environmental and occupational heavy metal and contaminant that can lead to chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study analyzed the long-term trend burden from 1990-2021 using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, projecting trends through 2050 with Bayesian age-period-cohort models. In 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lead-associated CKD was 8635.60 and 189127.20. And age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates were 0.47 per 100,000 population and 9.39 per 100,000 population, respectively. Compared with 1900, all indicators have declined except for death number, all of which were below global level. The sex-specific burden increased with increasing age, and was higher in males. The downward trend in sex-specific burden from 2020-2050 was observed. While overall burden has decreased, persistent environmental lead pollution necessitates targeted prevention for males and middle-aged/elderly populations. CKD management and pollution control remain critical public health challenges in China.