Inferring Causal Relationships for Lifetime Reproductive Traits and Modelling Latent Reproductive Performance Variable in Murciano‐Granadina Goats

The current study investigated the application of structural equation models for genetic analysis of lifetime reproductive traits and latent variable modelling in the Murciano-Granadina goat breed. In the current investigation, data collected between 2016 and 2023 in a private dairy farm of the Murciano-Granadina goat breed in Ghale-Ganj city, located in the southern area of Kerman Iranian province were used. The investigated lifetime reproductive traits included overall litter size at birth (OLSB), overall litter size at weaning (OLSW), overall litter weight at birth (OLWB), and overall litter weight at weaning (OLWW). Four multivariate animal models, including standard (SMM), Inductive Causation algorithm-based structural equation (ICM), ICM with biological modification (ICM-BM), and fully recursive (FRM) models were fitted on the data and compared in terms of predictive ability measures including mean squared prediction error (MSE) and Pearson's correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted values (r(y, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mrow><mml:mover><mml:mi>y</mml:mi> <mml:mo>̂</mml:mo></mml:mover> </mml:mrow> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> )) of records. ICM-BM performed better than other models in terms of the lowest MSE and the highest r(y, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mrow><mml:mover><mml:mi>y</mml:mi> <mml:mo>̂</mml:mo></mml:mover> </mml:mrow> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> ). Under ICM-BM, heritability estimates were low values of 0.08, 0.08, 0.11, and 0.10 for OLSB, OLSW, OLWB, and OLWW, respectively. Genetic correlations among lifetime reproductive traits were positive and varied from 0.72 (OLSB-OLWW) to 0.95 (OLSB-OLWB). The confirmatory factor analysis technique was used to construct a latent variable named reproductive performance (RP) from the investigated lifetime reproductive traits. The posterior mean for heritability of RP was estimated at 0.06. The genetic correlations between RP and the investigated lifetime reproductive traits were high and positive, ranging from 0.92 (RP-OLSB) to 0.99 (RP-OLSW). The corresponding phenotypic correlations were also high and positive, ranging from 0.81 (RP-OLWB) to 0.95 (RP-OLSW). Considering causal structure among the traits detected via ICM-BM had more advantages for genetic evaluation of the lifetime reproductive traits in the Murciano-Granadina goat compared with SMM. The low heritability estimates implied that the studied lifetime reproductive traits and RP were mainly controlled by non-additive genetic and environmental effects which limits the efficiency of direct genetic selection for improving these traits. Furthermore, positive genetic and phenotypic correlations favoured using RP latent variable for breeding purposes.