Counterfactual analysis of Storm <i>Ciarán</i> from an insurance viewpoint

Abstract Storm Ciarán (2023) led to large industry‐wide insurance losses, concentrated in northern France, with a smaller contribution from southern UK. In a simplified application of the full version of CoreLogic’s Eurowind™ model, we show the impact of latitudinal displacements and amplification of maximum gust windspeeds on insured losses. Northward perturbations shift high gusts from over the English Channel to the UK mainland and areas of high insured exposure, increasing insured losses in the UK and decreasing those in France. Southward perturbations have the opposite effects in both countries.