Assessment of Trend Pattern of Rice Production in Some Rice Growing States of India

In this paper, the trend pattern of rice production has been examined for some rice growing states of India viz., Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The analysis has been carried out by collecting secondary time series data on rice production during the period 2011-2020, and fitting some well-known models viz., linear model, exponential model and cubic model. The trend values have been estimated by fitting the respective models to the concerned time series data. Moreover, the accuracy of the models has been examined using coefficient of determination (), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative mean absolute percentage error (RMAPE). Furthermore, Chi-square test of “goodness of fit” has been applied in the empirical investigation for validation of the concerned fitted models. The results of the investigation reveal the suitability of the models for exploring the scenario of trend patterns of rice production in the concerned states of India.