Analysis of Runoff Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in the Typical Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, China

As an important drinking water source for Beijing, the capital of China, the water inflow of Miyun Reservoir has been decreasing year by year, which has affected the urban water supply security. To understand the variation trend of the inflow and analyze the main factors influencing the runoff change, this research focused on the watershed of Miyun Reservoir as the target. Based on the runoff data from 1984 to 2020 at the outlet of the basin, as well as the precipitation, potential evaporation intensity, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), population, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data, combined with correlation analysis methods, empirical statistical methods, the SCRCQ (Slope Change Ratio of Cumulative Quantity) method, and the GIS, the interannual variation characteristics of various elements in the basin were analyzed, the correlation between runoff and other factors was studied, and the influencing degrees of precipitation, water surface evaporation intensity, human activities, and other factors on the runoff change in the basin were quantitatively separated. The research results showed that the runoff exhibited a distinct decreasing trend, and there were two mutation points in the basin runoff from 1984 to 2020, which were 1995 and 2014, respectively. The runoff change was divided into three stages: 1984–1995 (upward trend in T1), 1995–2014 (downward trend in T2), and 2014–2020 (stable trend in T3). Runoff was significantly correlated with four indicators: the summer leaf area index of the Chaohe River and Baihe River, the regional GDP and population, among which the correlation of the summer leaf area index was the largest. Compared with the period T1, the contribution rates of climate change to the runoff reduction in T2 and T3 were 6.38% and 5.73%, and the contribution rates of human activities to the runoff reduction were 93.62% and 94.27%, respectively. Therefore, the change in annual runoff in the Miyun Reservoir watershed is mainly affected by human activities, and the contribution of climate change to the runoff attenuation is weak. This study is significant in the maintenance and enhancement of runoff in typical watershed.