A Two-Decade Overview of the Environmental Carrying Capacity in Bahía Santa Maria–La Reforma Coastal Lagoon System

Santa María Bay–La Reforma (SMBLR), with its 58,300 ha is one of Mexico’s most extensive estuarine lagoon systems. It is made up of islands, estuaries, and mangrove areas, which provide a vital part of the habitat and refuge of a significant number of birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals. The fishing of blue and brown shrimp, marine and estuarine fish, as well as the exploitation of crab and bivalve mollusks, represent an important economic value for the communities that live there and for the state of Sinaloa, Mexico. This state ranked second in fisheries production and first in aquaculture production by 2023. However, the biological richness of this ecosystem has historically been threatened by economic activities such as agriculture, livestock, and aquaculture that, via watersheds, translate into continuous inputs of nutrients and other pollutants. This has led to modifications to the system such as changes in the structure of pelagic and benthic communities, mainly in response to eutrophication. To understand the dynamics of nutrient inputs to the ecosystem, this work presents a comparative analysis of the system’s carrying capacity and the magnitude of the main economic activities from 2007 to 2019. We found that during each season of the year and its transitions, the system functions as a nitrogen and phosphorus sink, which is associated with autotrophic net ecosystem metabolism and nitrogen fixation processes. We suggest that while water residence times in SMBLR are short, these are strongly influenced by the high volumes of water and nutrient loads determined by the spatio-temporal variations in hydrological drainage from the basins of influence of the system. The discharge of agriculture and aquaculture drains into SMBLR are areas of concern due to the high amount of nutrients. Although SMBLR is mostly an autotrophic system, there are signs that the carrying capacity during some seasons has been exceeded, and adverse ecological and socioeconomic effects in the basin are evident.