Impact of time-based variability on planning reliability in construction projects: analysis of production management systems

Purpose This research article proposes a quantitative method for analyzing planning reliability and risk evaluation in construction projects through probabilistic numerical simulation models. The aim is to assess the combined time-based variability of activities across the project and its impact on planning reliability in various production management systems. Design/methodology/approach The study examines different methods for comparing the impact of production management strategies, specifically standardization and lean construction practices, on project reliability. The article introduces Monte Carlo, importance sampling and first-order-second moment methods as quantitative tools for decision-making and continuous improvement in construction projects. Findings The utilization of multiple numerical simulation models demonstrates how the variability in activity durations directly affects planning reliability, leading to uncertainty and increased risk in construction projects. The study highlights the significance of lean construction principles and industrialized processes, such as standardization of processes and construction methods, in reducing variability and improving the average duration of activities. Furthermore, it quantifies the differential impact of various production management systems on project performance and planning reliability. Research limitations/implications This study is based on a limited number of case studies, which may affect the generalizability of the findings. The results are specific to the construction projects analyzed in Colombia. Expanding the research to include a broader range of projects will improve the applicability of the findings. Developing more comprehensive numerical models can also enhance understanding of planning reliability across different construction management systems. Originality/value Currently, there are limited quantitative methods available for project managers to evaluate the impact of industrialized construction practices and production management strategies on planning reliability as well as quantifying the associated risk level in project delays. Consequently, the adoption of innovative construction methods is often limited to a few pilot projects, as managers lack numerical evidence to support the implementation of new methodologies that require changes in traditional operational practices.